I know I'm going out on a very wobbly limb here, but I think there is a case to be made that the 2008 election could be a landslide - for McCain.  However, my case depends on McCain doing everything right and the polished Obama making a lot of mistakes.  In reality both candidates have shown themselves quite capable of horrendous mistakes. The crux of my argument though is that Obama is so radically left-wing that he's miles and miles from the American mainstream.  There would be a landslide for John McCain - if... if McCain can come across as a capable leader and if McCain can convince America of just who the real Barack Obama is.  If Obama's true radical nature is captured by John McCain in this campaign, and if McCain can convince Americans that he's a steady and capable leader, then he will win in a landslide. 

Many questions remain of course.  John McCain has had recent flip-flops on offshore drilling.  First he was against it, now he's for it.  At least he moved in the right direction.  Obama has had bizarre flip flops on the Iraq war.  First we should get out ASAP, then after it is recognized by everyone that the "surge" is working, he says we should still get out ASAP.  He also says the surge may have worked, but because it was President Bush's idea it didn't really work.  But he says, we should begin a new surge in Afghanistan.  Although he still maintains the Iraqi surge didn't really help.  If he continues to go on like that and if McCain continues with his flip flops and bizarre statements (like saying he's not for any payroll tax increase and then saying "all suggestions are on the table" including tax increases) then this will be a very close race indeed.  But if McCain can get his act together and stop saying contradictory things, if he can learn to think like a conservative, he will beat Obama hands down. 

There are encouraging signs.  A recent Rasmussen poll shows Americans are breaking towards McCain on the major issues of the day.   That could be an indication that the public is recognizing just how radical Obama is.  Another encouraging sign in today's Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking poll is evidence that Americans are catching on (by 46%) that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory.  That's up from 43% in July and 39% in June.  But the most encouraging news is that by a three-to-one margin (75% - 25%) Americans hold the opposite view and believe our society is generally fair and decent.  

Obama and his wife and his pastor and his new pastor and many of his high-level supporters all hold extremely negative views of America.  This goes against the grain of the American electorate though.  So if McCain and the Republicans can bring this fact out and make it obvious for all to see - I really think McCain could end up winning in a landslide.  I just don't see Americans voting for the real Obama.  If they do it will be because he was successful in hiding his true identity from them.  Which is something that he may have learned, by the way, from all his pals who he now says "aren't the friend I knew"!  His pastor is suddenly "not the man I knew".  Some of his supporters like Tony Rezko are suddenly "not the person I knew".  So he's had a lot of contact with people who were well versed in hiding who they were.  He may have picked something up from them!

WSJ July 31, 2008; Page A13

Is John McCain losing it?

On Sunday, he said on national television that to solve Social Security "everything's on the table," which of course means raising payroll taxes. On July 7 in Denver he said: "Senator Obama will raise your taxes. I won't."

This isn't a flip-flop. It's a sex-change operation.  Recent remarks by John McCain has some Republicans stewing. Wonder Land columnist Dan Henninger of the WSJ Editorial page talks with Kelsey Hubbard about McCain's need for a new strategy to beat Barack Obama.

He got back to the subject Tuesday in Reno, Nev. Reporters asked about the Sunday tax comments. Mr. McCain replied, "The worst thing you could do is raise people's payroll taxes, my God!" Then he was asked about working with Democrats to fix Social Security, and he repeated, "everything has to be on the table." But how can . . .? Oh never mind.

Yesterday he was in Aurora, Colo., to wit: "On Social Security, he [Sen. Obama] wants to raise Social Security taxes. I am opposed to raising taxes on Social Security. I want to fix the system without raising taxes."

What I'm asking is, does John McCain have the mental focus, the intellectual discipline, to avoid being out-slicked by Barack Obama, if he isn't abandoned by his own voters?

It's not just taxes. Recently the subject came up of Al Gore's assertion that the U.S. could get its energy solely from renewables in 10 years. Sen. McCain said: "If the vice president says it's doable, I believe it's doable." What!!?? In a later interview, Mr. McCain said he hadn't read "all the specifics" of the Gore plan and now, "I don't think it's doable without nuclear power." It just sounds loopy.

Then this week in San Francisco, in an interview with the Chronicle, Sen. McCain called Nancy Pelosi an "inspiration to millions of Americans." Notwithstanding his promises to "work with the other side," this is a politically obtuse thing to say in the middle of a campaign. Would Bill Clinton, running for president in 1996 after losing control of the House, have called Newt Gingrich an "inspiration"? House Minority Leader John Boehner, facing a 10-to-20 seat loss in November, must be gagging.

The one thing -- arguably the only thing -- the McCain candidacy has going for it is a sense among voters that they don't know what Barack Obama stands for or believes. Why then would Mr. McCain give voters reason to wonder the same thing about himself? You're supposed to sow doubt about the other guy, not do it to yourself.

Yes, Sen. McCain must somehow appeal to independents and blue-collar Hillary Democrats. A degree of pandering to the center is inevitable. But this stuff isn't pandering; it's simply stupid. Al Gore's own climate allies separated themselves from his preposterous free-of-oil-in-10-years whopper. Sen. McCain saying off-handedly that it's "doable" is, in a word, thoughtless.

Speaker Pelosi heads a House with a 9% approval. To let her off the hook before the election reflects similar loss of thought.

The forces arrayed against Sen. McCain's candidacy are formidable: an unpopular president, the near impossibility of extending Republican White House rule for three terms, the GOP trailing in races at every level, a listless fundraising base, doubtful sentiments about the war, a flailing economy.

The generic Democratic presidential candidate should win handily. Barack Obama, though vulnerable at the margin, is a very strong candidate. This will be a turnout election. To win, Mr. McCain needs every Republican vote he can hold.

Why make it harder than it has to be? Given such statements on Social Security taxes, Al Gore and the "inspirational" Speaker Pelosi, is there a reason why Rush Limbaugh should not spend August teeing off on Mr. McCain?

Why as well shouldn't the Obama camp exploit all of this? If Sen. Obama's "inexperience" is Mr. McCain's ace in the hole, why not trump that by asking, "Does Sen. McCain know his own mind?"

* * *
In this sports-crazed country, everyone has learned a lot about what it takes to win. They've heard and seen it proven repeatedly that to achieve greatness, to win the big one, an athlete has to be ready to "put in the work."

John McCain isn't doing that, yet. He's competing as if he expects the other side to lose it for him. Sen. McCain is a famously undisciplined politician. Someone in the McCain circle had better do some straight talking to the candidate. He's not some 19-year-old tennis player who's going to win the U.S. presidential Open on raw talent and the other guy's errors. He's not that good.

There is a reason the American people the past 100 years elevated only two sitting senators into the White House -- JFK and Warren Harding. It's because they believe most senators, adept at compulsive compromise, have no political compass and will sell them out. Now voters have to do what they prefer not to. Yes, Sen. McCain has honor and country. Another month of illogical, impolitic remarks and Sen. McCain will erase even that. Absent a coherent message for voters, he will be one-on-one with Barack Obama in the fall. He will lose.